Futures Research

“It is not the strongest of the species who survive, nor the most intelligent; rather it is those most responsive to change.” – Charles Darwin

Rescue Global defines futures research as:

“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Futures research may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, futures research is intended to improve the robustness of policies, practices and their evidence base.” (credit to UK MoD and Defra).

Futures research refers to a range of methods that can be used to identify, analyse and communicate insights about the future. Futures research is still a relatively young and evolving, semi-scientific discipline, and there continues to be considerable variety in terminology and approaches. Standard methods include horizon scanning, trend research, and scenario planning. Outputs include emerging issues, trends, visions, scenarios, and wild cards.

The methods employed and insights produced are used by both private and public sector organisations to inform a wide range of policy, risk, strategy and innovation processes. Futures research is a truly inter-disciplinary ‘science’, covering and combining developments in society, technology, economy, ecology, politics and values. Crucially, futures research is as much about studying the past and present, than it is about the future. Only once we understand how a system works today, can we confidently explore how it may evolve and look like in the future.

Futures analysis was first developed in World War II, but became popular in the business world only in the 1960s when other methods that attempted to predict a single future, incorrectly forecast important details and often led to unwelcome surprises. Horizon scanning and futures techniques consider ranges of possible, plausible futures so that planning can be put in place to adapt to and mitigate against various conditions. It is designed to add resilience, adaptability and flexibility to organisation in an increasingly complex and fast changing world.

Over time, global and domestic trends and drivers interact with each other and with the policies and strategies we put into place to create new conditions and new futures. By analysing emerging issues, new trends and long-term drivers, we can discover new threats and opportunities and explore these strategically. This improves the evidence which underpins policy making and makes an organisation more resilient to change.

Rescue Global provides a platform for international organisations to model their specific risks, and so be best able to plan responses in line with the future, not just the past, by engaging with and analysing:

• Ground truths, reports from the field, when Rescue Global teams are deployed in Crisis and Disaster areas
• After action reports, in depth analysis of Rescue Global (and other agencies) Missions at the PRC (performance review of command) and PRO (performance review of operations) levels
• Partnership working, reports and finding from partner agencies at the local, regional, international and state actor level
• Academic research, engaging with the most appropriate centres of research and academic study, to promote not only academic rigor in terms of thorough research, but also to encourage a critical approach to disaster response analysis
• Industry expertise, engaging with industrial providers of equipment and expertise in the appropriate fields. To asses not only what works and what does not work, but why
• Governments and State, engaging with all State actors who have experienced, are experiencing, or are likely to experience crisis and disasters both natural and man made. Respectful of differences, and mindful of the similarities in terms of risks faced, Rescue Global aims to continue to develop good practices and encourage trusting relationships which are crucial in the pre, during and post disaster phases.